Foreign currency pair games: EUR/USD
In early summer, the EUR/USD currency pair continued the race, which began in spring. After the ECB meeting on June 6, the bulls on the Forex market became even more confident. Everything related to monetary policy remained unchanged, and the head of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, emphasized that the macroeconomic background has been improving lately. Eurozone statistics for June also looks more positive than before. Of course, all the risks in the economy continue to remain in place, but political factors promise to be as soft as possible.The main question for investors was: What is the maximum growth bar for the euro? At the meeting of the Federal Reserve Service, which was held on June 19, experts gave answers to these questions. During the meeting, it was announced that the QE3 programme will be phased out in 2014. This means that the EUR/USD pair has entered a downward trend, which pleased bear traders. And now we should only expect a decrease from the $1.3415.At the end of June, this currency pair was below $1.3000, falling by 400 pips. On June 26, the GDP review in America in the first quarter of the year raised doubts about the timing of the U.S. “hardness” of the policy, but the bearish prospect of the euro has not changed.Prediction for EUR/USD:Pair will fix at the level below $1.3000, thus opening the way to decrease (up to $1.2750). In order for the previous trend to resume, the currency pair should return to the level much higher than $1.3400. However, this feature is now very ghostly.
GBP/USD: high sales
Dynamic movement of the currency pair GBP / USD in the first summer month is very similar to the dynamics of the previous currency pair (EUR / USD). GBP/USD also continued its race and crossed the mark of $1.5750. But this currency pair was also influenced by the Fed meeting. After that, the trend reversed and rushed down, aggravating the fact that the CBA left the monetary policy unchanged.This led to a fall of GBP/USD by more than 500 points. At the end of June the pair reached the level of $1.5200. Before that there was a rather powerful bearish absorption candlestick, and a week later there was an opening with a bearish gap directed downwards. On the June chart this was reflected in the form of a small candle with a rather long upper shadow. In June, Great Britain released good statistics, but due to the possible curtailment of the QE program and softening of the policy increases the sales of this currency.In this case, the financial situation in the UK remains rather unstable. This is affected by the slow recovery of the global economy and the emerging challenges in the EU.Prediction for GBP/USD:The pair will remain in a bearish trend. Break-down of the lower level of $1.5200 will allow to fall below the level of $1.5000. The main goal will be to decrease to $1.4830. Any attempt to restore will look like a correction until the pair is at the level of $1.5600.
The next mark USD/JPY
This pair is expected to end the month in a small minus. But it should be noted that at the end of June, the U.S. dollar recovered and returned to the level above 100. The next factor influencing the level of the currency pair may be the mark of 100 Japanese yen for one dollar. If the pair manages to break through this level, it will have the opportunity to test the previous maximums (103.70).The main support levels are at 93.60, 96.70/97.00. That’s 38.2% of Fibonacci level if you count from September’s rise to May and 90.50-50% of Fibonacci level.Prediction for USD/JPY: Projections are quite positive – upward trend is expected to continue, but its growth will slow down sharply.
“Black Australian” or AUD/USD currency pair
Australian continued to fall in the first month of summer. If we compare with what happened in May, it should be noted that the rate of movement of the pair to the lower bar slightly slowed down, and there were correction stages periodically.AUD/USD currency pair reversal area consolidated at $0.2019/1088. At this point is the maximum for 2009-2010 and the minimum for 2011. As a result, the prospects for AUD/USD remained bearish. The support is at $0.9140 and $0.9000.Prediction for AUD/USD:Maximum rate withdrawal can be up to $0.8850 (which is one hundredth of a month’s average). At the very beginning of July there may be a contraction of short positions. But the Australian currency for sale will be vulnerable on the rise to the level of $0.2019/1000.On the first Tuesday of July the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold a meeting. Everyone expects the key interest rate to remain unchanged (2.75%). The Australian currency is badly affected by various slowdowns in Chinese business activity, as it is the main business partner of Australians. Reduced raw material prices are also worsening. In addition, there has been a recent change of government, which again affected the unattractiveness of AUD for investors. But no one denies the probability of correction for an Australian.