In this article I want to talk about the forecast at the Rubbleth at the coming year. We must admit that in 2021 the Russian currency behaved relatively calmly. Most experts believe that this year will be not bad for the Russian currency. Of course, it will be possible if there is no unforeseen events. The course expected in the current year is in the range of 70 to 78 rubles per dollar. The first quarter of the year is favorable for the currency of Russia. But in the second half of the year you can expect Its weakening under pressure from a number of factors. Among them: Payments for external debt, as well as dividends, travel abroad during the vacation period, the growth of import procurement for the upcoming New Year holidays.
Factors that will have an impact on the ruble exchange rate
First of all, this policy that the central bank will be carried out. Raising bet is a positive factor for the ruble. High rate makes debt paper attractive for foreign investors. You can expect the growth of their investment activity, What will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. Papers that have a fixed profitability are particularly popular in such a situation. The following important factor is the prices of commodity markets. Currently, they are at high levels. And this means that the revenue of the oil and gas sector of the Russian economy is growing, which supports the course of the National Course. However, some experts believe that the influence of this factor in 2022 is likely to be limited. High prices for raw materials are already taken into account by the market. A significant change in the Russian currency exchange rate will occur if the price of barrel oil Brent falls below 65 dollars or will take the stable position above 80 dollars. Inflation also affects the currency rate. If it grows, the means in rubles are depreciated. In this regard, people start to get rid of the ruble and prefer to use other currency to save funds, which leads to the weakening of the Russian currency. Nevertheless, many experts believe that the peak inflation rate has already been passed. By the end of this year, it can fall below the mark of 5%. This will allow the Bank of Russia to consider the possibility of reducing the key rate. On the expectations of such a development of events, foreign investors can increase the volume of purchases of Russian bonds and strengthen the ruble. Pandemic, of course, also affects currencies of different countries. The deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Russia can weaken the ruble. Reducing the number of diseases will strengthen the country’s currency. However, not everything is so unequivocal. Some Experts believe that the introduction of hard restrictions due to a pandemic, on the contrary, will strengthen the ruble, since the purchases of other currencies for a trip to foreign countries will sharply decrease. And two more factors of influence on the ruble exchange rate, which I would like to draw your attention. It is an increase in fed betting and geopolitics. No one no longer doubts that the US Federal Reserve in the coming months will begin to raise rates. The only question is how aggressively it will do it. Increasing the rates of the American Central Bank will strengthen the dollar and, Accordingly, weakens the ruble. Geopolitics can have a significant impact on the ruble exchange rate. The exacerbation of the situation will weaken the Russian currency. But still hope that this year the ruble will demonstrate stability. Inga Fedorova 15.01.2022 Recording The forecast for the first time appeared forex-for-you.ru for the first time at the rate of the Russian ruble for 2022. .